Our rent debt dashboard, produced in partnership with the Right to the City Alliance, equips policymakers and advocates with data on the extent and nature of rent debt in their communities to inform policies to eliminate debt and prevent the specter of mass eviction.

By Sarah Treuhaft, Michelle Huang, Alex Ramiller, Justin Scoggins, Abbie Langston, and Jamila Henderson

Mounting rent debt and the potential for mass eviction is one of the most pressing equity issues created by the Covid-19 pandemic. The vast majority of renters who are in debt are low-wage workers —  disproportionately people of color — who’ve suffered job and income losses due to the pandemic. When the federal eviction moratorium expires at the end of this month, the renter households that still hold debt and lack protection by state or local moratoria will be at imminent risk of eviction and homelessness. Allowing this eviction tsunami to take place would be a moral travesty and a policy failure that would deepen inequities at a moment when the federal government has prioritized addressing systemic racism and ensuring an equitable recovery.

To inform policymaking and advocacy to prevent eviction and eliminate rent debt, the National Equity Atlas and the Right to the City Alliance launched a rent debt dashboard in April 2021 with near real-time data on the number and characteristics of renters behind on rent for the US, most states (currently 42 states), and 15 metro areas.* The dashboard also provides estimates of the amount of back rent owed for these geographies, as well as estimates for the number of households with debt and the amount owed for all counties in the states. Drawing current data from the Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey and the University of Southern California Center for Economic and Social Research's Understanding Coronavirus in America survey, the dashboard data is refreshed approximately every two weeks. Find our full methodology here.

Born out of the need for accessible, current data to inform local and state campaigns, the dashboard was produced in partnership with the Right to the City Alliance, a network of community-based organizations working in 45 cities and 26 states to prevent displacement, expand affordable housing, and build just, sustainable cities for all.

This analysis shares key insights from the dashboard, based on the May 26 - June 7 Pulse survey, along with action steps that local, state, and federal policymakers can take to stabilize the people most negatively impacted by the pandemic and facilitate equitable recovery by addressing the challenge of rent debt.

This is an update to our May 25 and April 21 analyses.

Rent debt continues to be a significant issue, with 5.8 million renter households behind on rent.

As of the first week of June 2021, 5.8 million renters — 14 percent of all renter households — were behind on their rent payments. Renters with arrears will be at imminent risk of eviction in the absence of strong eviction moratoria and other renter protections, and the current federal eviction moratorium from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was recently extended one final time and will expire July 31. As a point of comparison, nearly 8 million households lost their homes to foreclosure due to the 2008 financial crisis.

The Pulse survey has been asking the question “Is this household currently caught up on rent payments?” every two weeks since August 2020. Nationally, the current share of renters with debt is down from a high of 19 percent in mid-January, but remains far higher than the pre-pandemic baseline. While data on rent debt is sparse, the 2017 American Housing Survey found that about seven percent of renters were unable to pay some or all of their rent.

The share of renters who are behind on rent is much higher than the national average in some states and metro areas. Alabama has the highest share of renters with arrears (28 percent), and at least 20 percent of renters are behind in the states of Arkansas, Georgia, New Jersey, New York, and South Carolina. New Hampshire and Utah have the lowest shares of renters with debt, at 7 percent.

Among the 15 metros included in the Pulse survey, New York has the highest share of renters with debt (24 percent), followed by Atlanta (21 percent), and Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, and Los Angeles, all at 16 percent. Phoenix has the lowest share of renters in arrears among the 15 metros (8 percent).

Nationally, we estimate that rent debt amounts to about $20 billion.

According to our estimates, households that are behind on rent owe $3,400 on average, for a total of $20 billion nationwide. As this average suggests, the majority of households who are behind owe one or two months of back rent. However, a smaller but not insignificant number of renters have not been able to pay rent for many months and owe much larger amounts. Our analysis of the University of Southern California’s Understanding Coronavirus in America national survey finds that approximately 28 percent are one month behind, 22 percent are two months behind, 15 percent are three months behind, and the remaining 35 percent are more than three months behind.

The average amount owed depends primarily on local housing costs, so it varies significantly across states and metros. Among states, Hawaii has the highest average rent debt per behind-household ($5,600), while Arkansas has the lowest ($2,100). At the metro level, San Francisco and Washington DC have the highest average debts ($5,800 and $5,200, respectively), while Detroit has the lowest average debt by far ($2,500), followed by Phoenix ($3,200).

Our national estimates of rent debt fall somewhere in the middle of existing projections in terms of total debt, and on the lower end in terms of per household amount. In January, Moody’s Analytics projected that 6.3 million renters would owe a total of $33 billion in rent debt by March, at an average of $5,282 per household. Stout Analytics estimated that between two and five million renter households owed between $13 and $24 billion as of January. Both Moody’s and Stout used the Pulse survey to inform their estimates of the number of households behind. Using a very different methodology based on modeling employment losses, income supports, and spending choices at the household level, and not incorporating the Pulse survey data, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia estimated that 1.8 million renter households would owe $11 billion in rent in March, at approximately $6,100 per household.

With the incipient recovery, the number of renters with debt has declined nationwide since its peak in January, but has remained at 14 percent since late March. Most states and metros are following this trend.

Nationwide, the share of renters with debt trended downward from a high of 19 percent in January to 14 percent in late March, and has held steady at 14 percent for the past couple of months. Nearly all states and metros followed this general downward trend since their peaks. Between January and the beginning of June, the rates of renters behind on rent rose in only 10 states, the District of Columbia, and one metro.

Among states, Georgia and Arkansas saw the biggest spike in arrearages (from 18 to 25 percent behind), followed by Oregon (from nine to 13 percent). Louisiana saw the biggest improvements (from 34 to 18 percent behind).

Among metros, only Atlanta saw an increase (from 15 to 21 percent behind). Philadelphia saw the greatest decrease (from 27 to 13 percent).

The vast majority of those who are behind on rent are low-income households who’ve lost jobs and income during the pandemic.

Today’s rent debt crisis is entirely a consequence of the pandemic’s economic fallout: 68 percent of those who were behind on rent in May had lost employment income at some point during the pandemic, according to the May 12-24 Pulse survey which asked respondents this question. As our other research has shown, low-wage workers, who are disproportionately workers of color, were hardest hit by pandemic job losses and are most likely to suffer from rent debt. Among households with rent debt, 81 percent are low-income (with earnings less than $50,000 per year) and 66 percent are renters of color. The majority (53 percent) are currently unemployed.

Renters have made tremendous sacrifices and tradeoffs to stay current on rent, including foregoing medical care, delaying payment of other bills, eating cheaper (and potentially less healthy) food, and voluntarily moving in with friends and family — increasing risk of Covid-19 exposure while losing their housing stability. One of the most surprising facts in the data is the high share of low-income renters who are paid in full: Among low-income households that lost employment income during the pandemic, 73 percent were not behind on rent as of May (also according to the May 12-24 Pulse survey).* This underscores how paying rent has remained a top priority for all renters throughout the pandemic, despite the moratoria on evictions.

Rent is not the only debt accumulating for renters.

While our analysis focuses on back rent, renters’ pandemic debt crisis extends far beyond their obligations to their landlords. Many renters are borrowing from family and friends or taking on other forms of debt in order to make rent and pay for household expenses. Among households behind on rent, 43 percent borrowed from friends or family to pay rent, compared with just 14 percent of households current on rent. About 30 percent of all renter households, whether behind or current on rent, used a credit card (or some other form of debt) to pay rent. Many are behind on other bills, such as utilities or car payments. A survey of water debt in California found that 1.6 million households owed $1 billion on water bills — $500 on average.

Renters of color have been disproportionately impacted by the pandemic and are more likely to owe back rent, making them more vulnerable to eviction risk.

In the United States, renters are already a more vulnerable population as a whole: they have little housing security, paltry savings, and few legal protections from exorbitant rent increases or eviction (outside of a few states and cities with strong tenant movements). Historic and continuing housing and lending discrimination, as well as systemic inequities in our labor market, have contributed to large racial inequities in homeownership. Atlas data show that seven in 10 White households own their homes while the majority of Black, Latinx, and multiracial households rent.

The challenge of unaffordable rents and flat wages add to this underlying housing insecurity among renters. Renters were already in crisis when the pandemic began: about a third of White renters and just under half of Black and Latinx renters were both economically insecure (earning less than 200 percent of the federal poverty level) and rent burdened (paying more than 30 percent of their income on rent). Gender is another important axis: women of color are most likely to be rent burdened, and disproportionately face eviction.

Covid-19 added yet another layer of inequity to these preexisting disparities. Today, 24 percent of Black renters, 17 percent of Asian or Pacific Islander and Latinx renters, and 18 percent of multiracial renters are behind on rent, compared to 9 percent of White renters.

Eliminating Rent Debt is an Equity Imperative and a Moral, Economic, and Public Health Necessity

Today’s rent debt crisis is a microcosm of the wretched inequality of the pandemic: millions of renter households – most of them people of color – now face the burden of owing back rent due to a public health crisis that had extremely concentrated negative economic impacts on low-wage workers. These unequal consequences are not random, but the predictable result of past policies that left millions of families with no savings to draw upon in the face of an economic shock, as well as the failed early policy response to the pandemic. Although the CARES Act provided important unemployment benefits and cash assistance as well as an eviction moratorium that helped many pandemic-impacted renters, undocumented and mixed-status families were ineligible for assistance and the moratorium ended in July, leaving renters unprotected until the CDC enacted its moratorium in early September. Moreover, absent meaningful financial assistance to pay back rent, the moratoria simply delay eviction. Yet, the federal government provided no rent relief until December, nine months into the pandemic.

The magnitude of rent debt is a crisis in and of itself and the leading indicator of a potential eviction tsunami that would be a humanitarian disaster. Rent debt adds a heavy burden onto families who are already financially insecure and struggling during the pandemic, further limiting their choices and creating additional stress. It’s also contributing to the growth of the racial wealth gap: while renters, predominantly people of color, currently hold $20 billion in debt, homeowners, who are predominantly White, saw a $1.9 trillion increase in their home equity from the first quarter of 2020 to the first quarter of 2021 as competition for a constrained supply of homes drove prices up. At a time when racial equity is at the forefront of the policy debate, eliminating rent debt that has unfairly and unequally accrued for people of color should be an urgent priority.

Clearing rent debt is also key to staving off the specter of mass eviction, which would directly harm economically vulnerable families and their communities and have long-term ripple effects throughout our economy. Eviction has significant negative consequences for mental and physical health, educational outcomes, and household finances. Some evicted families and individuals would become homeless, with devastating consequences for long-term health and well-being as well as significant costs for local governments.

The health impacts of eviction and homelessness are even more severe during a pandemic. Research during the pandemic found that states that allowed evictions to proceed had more Covid infections and deaths than those with eviction moratoria. Although the vaccination campaign is in full swing and Covid cases are low in most states, there are hotspots with high infection rates and the longer-term picture remains uncertain.

Forgiving rent debt is also essential to an equitable and people-centered recovery: one in which those hardest-hit by the pandemic can fully participate and thrive.

For an Equitable and Just Recovery, Policymakers Must Clear Rent Debt and Prevent Eviction

Recognizing the catastrophic impact of mass eviction, policymakers have responded, albeit belatedly, by enacting eviction moratoria and establishing rent relief funds. The federal CDC eviction moratorium scheduled to expire last month was extended through July 31, and the American Rescue Plan (ARP) passed in January provided $21.5 billion for rental assistance programs as well as $350 billion in fiscal support for state and local governments, some of which could be allocated toward debt relief. The December 27 coronavirus relief bill also provided $25 billion in funding for rental assistance.

With the federal moratorium expiring in just a few weeks and many state and local emergency rent relief programs supported by the ARP just getting off the ground, there is an urgent need to clear the debts of all tenants in need to prevent mass eviction. Throughout the pandemic, rent relief programs have not been reaching all of those in need. These programs must be structured to meet the scale of the crisis, both to efficiently deliver resources and to ensure that resources are distributed equitably, reaching the low-income renters of color who were both hardest hit by the pandemic and already housing insecure before Covid-19. Renters also need stronger eviction protections, including access to free legal assistance and eviction diversion programs. States and localities should extend their eviction moratoria until the pandemic rent debt crisis has subsided.

As they design rent relief programs, local and state policymakers should implement policies that adhere to the following equitable, common sense principles:

• No renter, regardless of immigration status, should be evicted or burdened with years of debt for rent that they were unable to pay during the pandemic.
• Rent debt due to the pandemic should be fully forgiven and should not be conditioned on landlords’ acceptance of funds or participation in programs.
• Financial assistance to landlords should address the fiscal needs of landlords in danger of going out of business due to lost rent, with a particular focus on keeping small community-based landlords and nonprofit affordable housing operators solvent, rather than attempting to achieve full rent replacement for all landlords. California’s program, negotiated with the state’s landlord association, provides an example: landlords receive 80 percent of back rent owed.
• Local municipalities’ authority to pass stronger eviction and debt protection laws should be preserved.
• Landlords should continue to fulfill their legal obligations to tenants regardless of whether they receive assistance, including the duty to maintain habitable premises, refrain from harassment and retaliation against tenants, and respecting tenants’ legal rights.

  For more local policy ideas and examples, see https://ourhomesourhealth.org

  * The number of renter respondents to the Pulse survey for Delaware, Maine, Mississippi, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wyoming was insufficient to produce reliable data to include in the dashboard.

Our new analysis highlights how communities of color and low-income communities not only suffered the greatest job losses, but are also most likely to be behind on rent.

By Jamila Henderson

The Covid-19 pandemic and economic shutdown brought about an unprecedented rise in unemployment in the Bay Area and across the country. While some people have returned to work, unemployment remains higher than pre-pandemic levels, and the economic burden of unemployment and lost wages continues to weigh on many families and their ability to pay rent and other necessities. This is especially true for the region’s most vulnerable residents who are disproportionately low-income people of color and immigrants (especially undocumented workers). Typical data sources used to report on the state of equity are often lagged by several years. This analysis addresses the current crisis by including recent indicators on the state of equitable recovery in the Bay Area region and across the state. 

Latinx and Black Workers Face Greater Health and Economic Risks Working Essential Jobs During the Pandemic

The Covid-19 pandemic has revealed long-standing racial segregation within the regional workforce. Workers of color are overrepresented among essential occupations—such as grocery store workers, healthcare professionals, bus drivers, and janitors—placing them at far greater risk of exposure to the virus. Workers of color are also disproportionately represented in lower-wage jobs that are less likely to provide benefits like health insurance, paid sick and family leave, and disability insurance. 

Black Workers, Women, and Workers with Less Education Suffered the Greatest Job Losses

The pandemic also brought about significant racial and gender inequities in unemployment as illustrated by research from the California Policy Lab. Women across the state face higher unemployment rates and have disproportionately left the labor force to assume childcare responsibilities. Between March 2020 and February 2021, one third of women in the labor force statewide applied for regular unemployment insurance, compared with 27 percent of men. About 40 percent of California’s Black workers filed for regular unemployment insurance during the pandemic, the highest rate of any group and more than one-and-a-half times the rate of White workers (24 percent). Virtually all Black workers in the state with no post-secondary education filed for regular unemployment insurance (95 percent).

Bay Area PPP Loan Recipients Tend to be Large Employers, Leaving Small Businesses (Especially Those Owned by People of Color) Behind

An Associated Press analysis of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) recipients across the nation revealed that businesses owned by people of color were last in line to receive PPP loans in 2020 because of barriers accessing the program’s banking institutions, or in some instances, multiple rejections or no response at all from banks. The analysis also showed that White business owners were more likely to secure loans early. Loan recipients in the Bay Area tended to be businesses with many employees, and most small businesses, especially those owned by Black, Latinx, Native American, and mixed-race owners, are single-person businesses with no additional employees. 

Between January 2020 and February 2021, small business revenue across the region took a hit, and many businesses closed their doors permanently. Only Napa County saw an increase in small business revenue, but also a 25 percent drop in the number of businesses open. The decline was most severe in San Francisco, where only about half of businesses were open and revenues declined 56 percent. 

Tenants Behind on Rent are Overwhelmingly Low-Wage Workers of Color Who’ve Suffered Job Losses During the Pandemic

The impact of the economic shutdown has been especially harsh for vulnerable renters. Facing job or income losses, most renters will do what it takes to pay their rent and keep a roof over their head, even if it means accumulating debt for other unpaid bills. Even so, it is inevitable that some of these renters will fall behind on rent without unemployment benefits and strong renter protections in place. People of color and low-income renters have been disproportionately impacted by the recession and are more likely to be behind on rent. 73 percent of those behind on rent earn less than $75,000 per year, and 70 percent are people of color.

The magnitude of the problem is great. An estimated 135,000 Bay Area households—12 percent of renter households are behind on rent. Absent strong worker and renter protections, they could face eviction and indebtedness. Collectively, these renters owe an estimated $747 million in rent debt, an average of over $5,500 per household behind on rent. 

Economic Recovery Begins by Prioritizing Racial and Economic Equity 

In the Bay Area, as elsewhere, the coronavirus and its economic fallout have disproportionately impacted the very same people who were on the economic margins before the pandemic, including Black, Latinx, and Native American residents, low-wage workers, and immigrant communities (especially undocumented workers). For the region to recover and thrive, policymakers must prioritize racial equity. This includes explicitly naming racial equity as a goal, prioritizing investments in historically underserved communities, building community ownership of land and housing, connecting unemployed and low-wage workers with good jobs, and supporting businesses owned by people of color and immigrants. Learn more here.

Our analysis finds that nearly 137,500 households in the Bay Area are behind on rent and facing rent debt. These households are overwhelmingly low-wage workers of color who’ve suffered job and income losses during the pandemic.

By Jamila Henderson and Michelle Huang

The onset of the Covid-19 pandemic saw an unprecedented spike in unemployment in the Bay Area and across the country. While some people have returned to work, unemployment remains higher than pre-pandemic levels, and the economic burden of unemployment and lost wages continues to weigh on many families and their ability to pay rent and other necessities.

Without expanding and strengthening unemployment insurance benefits, eviction moratoriums, and renter protections, there will be a wave of households losing their homes in the second year of the pandemic. This analysis sheds light on the magnitude of this risk by estimating the number of Bay Area renter households that are behind on their rent and reporting on the estimated amount of rent debt these households could face. We estimate the share of households behind on rent using the Census Household Pulse Survey and estimate rent debt using data from the American Community Survey on household rent. Estimates are available for the nine-county Bay Area region and the individual nine counties. See the accompanying fact sheet and methodology.

Nearly 137,500 Bay Area Renter Households are at Risk of Eviction and Indebtedness

We estimate that 137,500 Bay Area households (about 11 percent of renter households) are behind on rent and at risk of eviction and indebtedness absent strong worker and renter protections. In addition to the devastating impact on the financial and physical security of these households, evictions and housing instability could deepen the public health crisis of Covid-19 by raising unnecessary exposure to the virus.

Overall, these renters owe about $488.3 million in renter debt, an average of nearly $3,600 per household behind on rent. A larger share (21 percent) of households earning less than $50,000 per year are behind on rent, meaning an estimated 86,600 low-income households are at risk of eviction and indebtedness. Rent debt for low-income households is estimated at $256.4 million, or approximately $3,000 per low-income household behind on rent.

In the Bay Area, Average Rent Debt Per Household Is Highest in San Mateo County, at More Than $4,400

Average rent debt for Bay Area households behind on rent (nearly $3,600) is comparable to the region’s median market rent before the pandemic ($3,500). By county, estimated rent debt per household is highest in San Mateo County ($4,400) where rents are relatively high. San Francisco surprisingly ranks last ($2,900), even though it is the most expensive rental housing market in the country. San Francisco experienced a recent “exodus” during the pandemic and economic downtown, and with it, a sharp decline in rents. It’s still unaffordable for many renters however, especially those who have lost jobs or income during the pandemic. San Francisco’s rental housing market is also likely to bounce back as conditions improve.

People of Color, and Low-Income Renters are Disproportionately Impacted by the Recession and More Likely to be Behind on Rent

Renters facing rent debt are overwhelmingly low-wage workers of color who’ve suffered job and income losses during the pandemic. Eight in 10 Bay Area renters who are behind on rent earn less than $75,000 per year, and nearly 90 percent are people of color. These largely low-income renters of color have faced significant financial hardships during the pandemic: More than half are currently unemployed and nearly 80 percent have lost employment income.

Expanding Protections for Vulnerable Renters

The region’s unemployment rate reached its highest level of the year at 13 percent in April 2020. By comparison, the peak unemployment rate in 2019 was only three percent. And the unemployment rate does not account for workers—predominantly women of color—who left their jobs to take care of their children or elderly parents. Since January 2020, more than 100,000 workers have dropped out of the labor force and are no longer included in the official unemployment numbers. The federal CARES Act provided expanded unemployment benefits that have been critical to workers who lost their jobs or hours due to the pandemic. Although these benefits expired March 14, 2021, the American Rescue Plan Act, recently signed by President Biden extends employment benefits for eligible workers. The Act provides enhanced federal unemployment insurance benefits of $300 per week on top of what states provide until Labor Day. This is a necessary step in ensuring the economic security of vulnerable workers, but additional measures are needed for displaced workers ineligible for unemployment insurance benefits. This includes undocumented and informal workers who have been struggling to pay rent for the past year.

On the eviction protection side of things, California has an eviction moratorium that is stronger than the federal moratorium, and the governor recently extended California’s eviction moratorium through June 2021. California also passed the COVID-19 Tenant Relief Act with the passage of SB 91 which provides rental assistance to eligible tenants and landlords. Although these funds intend to provide relief for lower-income tenants unable to pay their full rent due to a Covid-19 related hardship, the decision to accept these funds rests with landlords. The aid would cover 80 percent of a tenant’s rent debt and landlords would need to forgive the rest. Tenants whose landlords reject funds could still apply for rental assistance, but it would only cover up to 25 percent of rent debt. Beginning August 1, 2021, landlords can start eviction proceedings to recover COVID-19-related rent debt accrued since the start of the pandemic.

Mass Eviction Would Devastate Families and Communities, Contributing to Rising Homelessness

Eviction is financially and emotionally devastating to families. It can cause serious harm to mental and physical health and negatively affect children’s education. Examining eviction risk in Los Angeles County, UCLA professor Gary Blasi estimated that 10 percent of those evicted due to Covid-19 would become homeless. In 2019, 35,028 individuals were experiencing homelessness in Bay Area counties; if 10 percent of currently at-risk households became homeless, that would lead to a 44 percent increase in homelessness. This would cause immeasurable despair and disruption for families and exacerbate existing racial inequities. Already, Black residents represent 29 percent of people experiencing homelessness in the region but only 6 percent of Bay Area residents.

Such a steep rise in homelessness would also strain the resources, staff, and infrastructure of cities and counties, nonprofits, housing agencies, and hospitals that provide many homeless services. The Bay Area was grappling with a significant affordable rental housing shortage before the pandemic and is not equipped to rapidly rehouse a growing number of residents at risk of eviction and homelessness.

Exacerbating the Housing Crisis for Black and Brown Renters

Even prior to the pandemic, Black and Latinx renter households, especially those led by women, were most likely to be rent burdened (defined as spending more than 30 percent of income on rent and utilities). In addition to being rent burdened, women renters were also most likely to be economically insecure, defined as earning less than 350 percent of the federal poverty level. This is about $87,000 for a family of four or $44,000 for a single individual. The economic fallout of the pandemic has disproportionately fallen on the same groups of people who were already struggling.

Share of Bay Area Renters Who Are Both Rent Burdened and Economically Insecure

Many of the jobs and industries hardest hit by business closures, and likely to be among the slowest to bounce back, are low-wage jobs—disproportionately held by women and people of color due to continuing racial segregation and discriminatory policies. In California, nearly 84 percent of Black workers have applied for unemployment insurance benefits since the start of the pandemic. About 32 percent of all Latinx workers have also applied for benefits, but this number is likely understated due to the high share of undocumented immigrant workers. Women are also more likely than men to have filed for unemployment during the pandemic, with 48 percent of women and 42 percent of men applying for benefits.

Bay Area renters continue to face rising economic and housing insecurity, which this crisis has only exacerbated. And too few have the financial resources to weather such a storm: nationwide, rent-burdened households have an average savings of just $10.

Worker and Renter Protections Need to be Strengthened and Expanded to Support Families

As businesses begin to open again following a record number of cases during the winter holidays and the end of stay-at-home orders, policies at the local, state, and federal level should prioritize the economic security of all residents based on the following common sense principles:

1. Local governments need to enact strong eviction moratoria and rent freezes; provide rental assistance/debt relief and legal services for low-income renters; pass just cause eviction protections and rent control; and create rent and eviction registries to evaluate current policies and ensure equity.
2. California needs a moratorium that lasts for the duration of the pandemic and recovery; debt relief that reaches every struggling tenant; and an inclusive process that provides a seat at the table for those most impacted. Local municipalities' authority to pass stronger eviction and debt protection should be preserved.
3. The federal government needs to extend and expand the eviction moratorium; provide rent debt relief targeted to the highest-need households; and extend expanded unemployment and other emergency assistance benefits to all workers who need them.

For additional data, and to learn more about how to protect renters in this crisis, read the fact sheet. See the methodology for our data sources and methods of calculating these estimates. Learn more about strategies for Securing Housing Justice for All.

Our analysis finds that nearly 137,500 households in the Bay Area are behind on rent and facing rent debt. These households are overwhelmingly low-wage workers of color who’ve suffered job and income losses during the pandemic.

By Jamila Henderson and Michelle Huang

The onset of the Covid-19 pandemic saw an unprecedented spike in unemployment in the Bay Area and across the country. While some people have returned to work, unemployment remains higher than pre-pandemic levels, and the economic burden of unemployment and lost wages continues to weigh on many families and their ability to pay rent and other necessities.

Without expanding and strengthening unemployment insurance benefits, eviction moratoriums, and renter protections, there will be a wave of households losing their homes in the second year of the pandemic. This analysis sheds light on the magnitude of this risk by estimating the number of Bay Area renter households that are behind on their rent and reporting on the estimated amount of rent debt these households could face. We estimate the share of households behind on rent using the Census Household Pulse Survey and estimate rent debt using data from the American Community Survey on household rent. Estimates are available for the nine-county Bay Area region and the individual nine counties. See the accompanying fact sheet and methodology.

Nearly 137,500 Households at Risk of Eviction and Indebtedness

We estimate that 137,500 Bay Area households (about 11 percent of renter households) are behind on rent and at risk of eviction and indebtedness absent strong worker and renter protections. In addition to the devastating impact on the financial and physical security of these households, evictions and housing instability could deepen the public health crisis of Covid-19 by raising unnecessary exposure to the virus.

Overall, these renters owe about $488.3 million in renter debt, an average of nearly $3,600 per household behind on rent. A larger share (21 percent) of households earning less than $50,000 per year are behind on rent, meaning an estimated 86,600 low-income households are at risk of eviction and indebtedness. Rent debt for low-income households is estimated at $256.4 million, or approximately $3,000 per low-income household behind on rent.

In the Bay Area, Average Rent Debt Per Household Is Highest in San Mateo County, at More Than $4,400

Average rent debt for Bay Area households behind on rent (nearly $3,600) is comparable to the region’s median market rent before the pandemic ($3,500). By county, estimated rent debt per household is highest in San Mateo County ($4,400) where rents are relatively high. San Francisco surprisingly ranks last ($2,900 per household in rent debt), even though it is the most expensive rental housing market in the country. San Francisco experienced a recent “exodus” during the pandemic and economic downtown, and with it, a sharp decline in rents. It’s still unaffordable for many renters however, especially those who have lost jobs or income during the pandemic. San Francisco’s rental housing market is also likely to bounce back as conditions improve.

People of Color, and Low-Income Renters are Disproportionately Impacted by the Recession and More Likely to be Behind on Rent

Renters facing rent debt are overwhelmingly low-wage workers of color who’ve suffered job and income losses during the pandemic. Eight in 10 Bay Area renters who are behind on rent earn less than $75,000 per year, and nearly 90 percent are people of color. These largely low-income renters of color have faced significant financial hardships during the pandemic: More than half are currently unemployed and eight in 10 have lost employment income.

Expanding Protections for Vulnerable Renters

The region’s unemployment rate reached its highest level of the year at 13 percent in April 2020. By comparison, the peak unemployment rate in 2019 was only three percent. And the unemployment rate does not account for workers—predominantly women of color—who left their jobs to take care of their children or elderly parents. Since January 2020, more than 100,000 workers have dropped out of the labor force and are no longer included in the official unemployment numbers. The federal CARES Act provided expanded unemployment benefits that have been critical to workers who lost their jobs or hours due to the pandemic, however these benefits are set to expire March 14, 2021. Meanwhile, many displaced workers ineligible for unemployment insurance coverage, including undocumented and informal workers, have been struggling to pay rent for nearly the past year.

On the eviction protection side of things, California has an eviction moratorium that is stronger than the federal moratorium, and the governor recently extended California’s eviction moratorium through June 2021. California also passed the COVID-19 Tenant Relief Act with the passage of SB 91 which provides rental assistance to eligible tenants and landlords. Although these funds intend to provide relief for lower-income tenants unable to pay their full rent due to a Covid-19 related hardship, the decision to accept these funds rests with landlords. The aid would cover 80 percent of a tenant’s rent debt and landlords would need to forgive the rest. Tenants whose landlords reject funds could still apply for rental assistance, but it would only cover up to 25 percent of rent debt. Beginning August 1, 2021, landlords can start eviction proceedings to recover COVID-19-related rent debt accrued since the start of the pandemic.

Mass Eviction Would Devastate Families and Communities, Contributing to Rising Homelessness

Eviction is financially and emotionally devastating to families. It can cause serious harm to mental and physical health and negatively affect children’s education. Examining eviction risk in Los Angeles County, UCLA professor Gary Blasi estimated that 10 percent of those evicted due to Covid-19 would become homeless. In 2019, 35,028 individuals were experiencing homelessness in Bay Area counties; if 10 percent of currently at-risk households became homeless, that would lead to a 44 percent increase in homelessness. This would cause immeasurable despair and disruption for families and exacerbate existing racial inequities. Already, Black residents represent 29 percent of people experiencing homelessness in the region but only 6 percent of Bay Area residents.

Such a steep rise in homelessness would also strain the resources, staff, and infrastructure of cities and counties, nonprofits, housing agencies, and hospitals that provide many homeless services. The Bay Area was grappling with a significant affordable rental housing shortage before the pandemic and is not equipped to rapidly rehouse a growing number of residents at risk of eviction and homelessness.

Exacerbating the Housing Crisis for Black and Brown Renters

Even prior to the pandemic, Black and Latinx renter households, especially those led by women, were most likely to be rent burdened (defined as spending more than 30 percent of income on rent and utilities). In addition to being rent burdened, women renters were also most likely to be economically insecure, defined as earning less than 350 percent of the federal poverty level. This is about $87,000 for a family of four or $44,000 for a single individual. The economic fallout of the pandemic has disproportionately fallen on the same groups of people who were already struggling.

Share of Bay Area Renters Who Are Both Rent Burdened and Economically Insecure

Many of the jobs and industries hardest hit by business closures, and likely to be among the slowest to bounce back, are low-wage jobs—disproportionately held by women and people of color due to continuing racial segregation and discriminatory policies. In California, nearly 84 percent of Black workers have applied for unemployment insurance benefits since the start of the pandemic. About 32 percent of all Latinx workers have also applied for benefits, but this number is likely understated due to the high share of undocumented immigrant workers. Women are also more likely than men to have filed for unemployment during the pandemic, with 48 percent of women and 42 percent of men applying for benefits.

Bay Area renters continue to face rising economic and housing insecurity, which this crisis has only exacerbated. And too few have the financial resources to weather such a storm: nationwide, rent-burdened households have an average savings of just $10.

Worker and Renter Protections Need to be Strengthened and Expanded to Support Families

As businesses begin to open again following a record number of cases during the winter holidays and the end of stay-at-home orders, policies at the local, state, and federal level should prioritize the economic security of all residents based on the following common sense principles:

1. Local governments need to enact strong eviction moratoria and rent freezes; provide rental assistance/debt relief and legal services for low-income renters; pass just cause eviction protections and rent control; and create rent and eviction registries to evaluate current policies and ensure equity.
2. California needs a moratorium that lasts for the duration of the pandemic and recovery; debt relief that reaches every struggling tenant; and an inclusive process that provides a seat at the table for those most impacted. Local municipalities' authority to pass stronger eviction and debt protection should be preserved.
3. The federal government needs to extend and expand the eviction moratorium; provide rent debt relief targeted to the highest-need households; and extend expanded unemployment and other emergency assistance benefits.

For additional data, and to learn more about how to protect renters in this crisis, read the fact sheet. See the methodology for our data sources and methods of calculating these estimates. Learn more about strategies for Securing Housing Justice for All.